I.In 2021, the export growth rate of China’s electric two-wheelers rose showeda “low-after-high” trend

In 2021, China exported 22.9 million electric two-wheelers, up 27.7% year on year, with an export value of $5.29 billion, up 50.8% year on year. The year-on-year growth rate of the annual export of electric two-wheelers has a large monthly difference, with a monthly increase of more than 100% in the first half of the year. Due to the low base caused by the outbreak of the pandemic in the same period of 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of the first and second quarters of 2021 is large, especially in February when the year-on-year growth rate of the monthly export volume is as high as 638.5%, and the export value increased sharply by 589.4%. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of export value in the third and fourth quarters narrowed rapidly and gradually returned to normal growth. Due to difficult shipping congestion and unpredictable exchange rate trends, the monthly export volume has declined to varying degrees since August.

II.Europe and USare still the main export destination markets; the export to Canada and Thailand increased sharply

In terms of export volume, North America remains the largest market for export of electric two-wheelers. In 2021, China exported 9.965 million electric two-wheelers to North America, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, accounting for 43.5% of the total. Exports to Europe ranked second, with7.628 million units, up 23.6% year-on-year, accounting for 33.3%; Asia ranked third, with 3.861 million units, up 23.0% year-on-year, accounting for 16.9%; Exports to Latin America totaled 859,000 units, up 15.6% year-on-year, accounting for 3.8%.

In terms of export value, export of Chinese electric two-wheelers to Europe reached the value of $2.02 billion in the whole year, up 49.4% year-on-year, accounting for 38.3%. Although the export quantity to North America recorded the most, the average unit price of electric two-wheelers exported to Europe was higher than that to North America. During the same period, the export value to North America was $1.75 billion, ranking second, with a year-on-year growth of 67.7%, accounting for 33.1%; The export to Asia was $1.08 billion, ranking third, up 29.7% year- on-year, accounting for 20.5%. The export to Latin America totaled $210 million, up 38.9% year-on-year, accounting for 4.0%.

Among the top ten export destinations in terms of export value, the United States, the Netherlands and Canada are the top three destinations of Chinese electric two-wheelers. Specifically, the export value to the United States is the largest, reaching $ 1.52 billion, accounting for 28.7% of the total. Export to Canada showed a large increase, with total value of $230 million, up 131.1% year-on-year, accounting for 4.4%.

For the top 10 export destinations in terms of export volume, in 2021, the number of electric two-wheelers exported to Thailand increased by nearly 200% year-on-year, with the fastest growth rate. Since 2020, Thailand has levied taxes on motorcycles in accordance with carbon dioxide emissions, and the tax rates under the new regulation are divided into 3%, 5%, 9% and 18% according to the CO₂ emissions of motorcycles. This policy helps promote electric two-wheelers in Thailand, which may be the main reason for the surge in China’s export of electric two-wheelers to Thailand.

III. Current situation of China’s electric two-wheeler industry

1. The traditional leading motorcycle enterprises acceleratedthe process of electrificationto compete with international brands

A number of domestic motorcycle companies proposed to set up new energy brands in 2020. Among them, CFMoto has officially released the AE8 in the beginning of 2022, and QJMOTOR Shanghai company was officially established at the end of 2021, anchoring a new direction for QJMOTOR’s development of new energy two-wheelers. In June 2020, BMW unveiled an electric concept called the Vision DC Roadster. In February 2022, Pierer Mobility announced in its financial report and investor documentation that KTM is developing a electric street bike, the first official confirmation of the existence of E-DUKE. The entry of international big brands makes the competition of electric motorcycle market increasingly fierce, and will accelerate the development of electric motorcycles.

2. Electric two-wheeled vehicleshavegradually entered the intelligent era, driven by policies, consumer demands, and the IoT technology and platform

Policy: Under the background of the “double carbon goals”, green mobility and environmental protection are the trends of the era. As one of the important means of short-distance travel, electric two-wheeled vehicles feature great convenience and high popularity, and it is an indispensable trend for them to go intelligent.

Consumer demand: electric two-wheelers attract increasingly more young consumers. There are higher requirements for intelligent products, and the consumption attribute of products is further enhanced.

IoT technology: With the gradual maturity of Internet of Things technology, intelligent electric two-wheeled vehicles are developed and innovated from multiple technical perspectives, such as newly-emerged vehicle positioning, sensor/controller, processor/MCU, cellular 4/5G, mobile phone interconnection, cloud platform, operating system and artificial intelligence functions, providing users with a more efficient and safer travel experience.

Shared platform: In recent years, shared bikes, electric bikes and scooters have become one of the preferred ways to connect the public transportation, and the first choice for short-range commuting and trips. With the popularity of shared two-wheeler platforms, the platforms need to make forecast of vehicles needed, and also control the operating and maintenance cost, which requires the vehicles to be more intelligent. Thus, manufacturers need to further customize and develop products to satisfy the demands of the platforms.

3. Vehicle enterprises strengthen the integration of industry chainto stabilize their supply chain and expand its supply capacity

In December 2021, Yadea planned to acquire Narada Power’s two subsidiaries that develop, produce and sell two-wheeler batteries. Through this move, Yadea intends to expand to upstream core components to maintain its leading position in production and development of electric two-wheelers while steadily expanding its supply capacity by stabilizing the supply chain. During the same period, Yadea, together with five other investors including AISPEECH, invested in Shanghai Shensilicon Semiconductor Co., Ltd., aiming to promote more in-depth technical cooperation and product development and accelerate the integration of electric two-wheeler industry with artificial intelligence technology, to ultimately create full-scene intelligence systems and bring new experience of intelligent riding to more users. This shows that vehicle enterprises have begun to implement their strategic deployment to the upstream and downstream supply chain while consolidating their domestic and overseas market share, which is to further expand their market share through long-term strategies.

4. Forecast of electric two-wheelertrends in 2022

First, 2022 is the first year to implement the RCEP, and the tariff on China’s electric motorcycle exports to Indonesia will be reduced by 2%. It is expected that China’s electric motorcycle exports to Indonesia will have certain growth space in 2022. Second, the replacement demand brought by the new national standard is still expanding, the implementation of the new standard the cities continues to drive the replacement demand, and industry concentration will further improve. Third, the carbon peaking and neutrality goals will drive electric two-wheelers into a new stage of development. In a word, the total output of electric two-wheelers in 2022 will remain stable and rise, and the high-quality development of the industry will be further accelerated.